| For the most part I think your logic is sound.
It's impossible to tell what will happen with resale values so I would go into this expecting to own for a MINIMUM of 5 years. Make sure that your financial situation is reasonably secure for that period of time (stable job, money in the bank, etc.)
If you have to sell you'll at least lose 10-15% in broker commission. All it takes is a small decline in the market, or an urgent need to sell, and you could find yourself $2000-3000 in the hole.
As for a Home resort, your post mentions quite a variety of resorts that you want to visit. If that's accurate, I would put more weight on contract durations and overall cost (acquisition + dues) than in owning a particular resort. BCV is a fine resort but the ownership ends in the year 2042 regardless of when you buy. That means you would only be getting about 33 years of ownership. By comparison. a Saratoga Springs purchase would get you 45 years, AKV 48 years and the Bay Lake Tower 50 years.
Most people who rely on booking at the 7 month window will tell you that it's rare that they are "stuck" staying at their Home resort. There are usually multiple options available if you call right at 7 months. But it's a situation where you may not be able to get a specific resort or room class every single time you want it. If you try to book BCV or the Bay Lake Tower Magic Kingdom View at 7 months, it make take you a few tries before you actually get it. Availability is such a fluid thing and it varies wildly from one season to another that it's tough to give you any firm advice.
If you really want the ability to consistently book BCV at 11 months, then by all means buy there. But in doing so you'll be paying higher dues than some other destinations and accepting a smaller overall contract length.
__________________ -- Tim
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