Two New Ships for Disney Cruise Line (Announcement + Article by Dave) About This Page:

[whoSEZ]

Oh boy oh boy oh boy oh boy!!

[GSCM_DisneyScout]

I heard a podcast indicating some of the staterooms on the new ship will accomodate families of 6! Can anyone find anything to confirm this?

[Dave Marx]

There are a lot of podcasts out there, so it helps to know the source. While I can't rule out the accuracy of the report, there's been no official word from DCL yet, and probably won't be for a while. Meantime, it's safe to say that there will be six-passenger staterooms, if for no other reason that the current ships also have a couple of six-passenger suites.

The real trick with six-passenger staterooms is the price charged for the space. With shipboard square footage being at such a premium, you can bet they won't build anything that would give them a lower-than-average return on that square footage. Judging by the rates currently charged for Cat. 4 Family Suites (sleep 5, rather than six), a six-passenger family suite won't be cheap.

If they build family suite-style staterooms with the equivalent square footage as two current Cat. 8/9 or 5/6 staterooms, it's highly probable that they'll charge enough to get at least the equivalent of the fare paid by a family of six occupying two staterooms - 4 full adult fares and 2 additional guest fares. On the rate chart, it may look like they're charging for two adults and four kids, but the basic rate for the room will be higher than the cost of two adjoining rooms, to compensate for the lost revenue.

Another possibility would be to have a family stateroom 50% larger than a single stateroom that would hold a family of six (let's say, with four bunk beds and a queen). The charge for that space could be lower than that for two adjoining rooms, but still higher on average than the rate they'd charge if the space was used more conventionally. Two such family suites could be fit into the space of three regular staterooms. In that case, they could charge the equivalent of three regular adult fares and three additional passenger fares for a family of six, which would be a savings for the family but no economic loss at all to the cruise line.

Chances are, no matter how many of these family suites DCL decides to build, they'll err on the side of caution. As a result, low supply will drive the demand-driven rates for those rooms higher than that of more conventional stateroom space.

But it's all speculation at this point.

[Cam22]

for the information! I can't wait to sail on one of the new ships.

[GSCM_DisneyScout]

It was a DIS Unplugged podcast. I don't know if that makes any difference or not.

[jbwolffiv]

Dave, thanks for that article. I cant get enough info about DCl and you helped ease that today.

[VerandahMan]

I'm "hoping" on taking a cruise to Alaska on one of the new DCL ships!!! Time will tell I guess.

[mouseclub4]

Ok since I juct got off the wonder. Before we left someone asked the Capt. J what was happening with the new ships. (this was in a meeting). We were all told that the contracts were signed on April 23rd of 07 for the shipyard. And that they are change some layouts since they know more this time. That we the guest might not notice it as much a the crew. And to watch to for the names to be annouced soon. that said there is even talk of a naming the ships contest. But they want the names real soon. We were also told they are already looking at the trips for the new ships. So we will see what happens I guess in the next couple of months.

[jah272@yahoo.com]

I thought the speculation posted was right on for the most part, but I would question whether they would put one of the big new ships on the West Coast at all. If you look at what other cruise lines have in the California/Mexico Market, they usually offer their smaller, older vessels. Since Disney could easily fill bigger ships in their established Carribean/Bahamas market, it seems more likely they would put one of the older ships on the West coast, where it could easily compete with most of the other cruise lines' offerings there. Meanwhile the bigger ships could compete head to head with the Carribean mega ships like RCL's Freedom of the Seas etc. (Disney's ships are still unique, but their competitors have come a long way in adding children's facilities and so forth, so I'm sure they have begun to draw away the family crowd from DCL at least a little.) I realize the west coast Disney cruises have sold out quickly, but they are special cruises... Once they have a permanent ship there, I would think demand would settle down a bit. In short, I imagine the new ships taking over the current Wonder and Magic itineraries, with the smaller ships available for the West coast and more exotic cruises. Just my humble opinion. I do agree that it's a disticnt possibility that they will lengthen the existing ships, in order to add competitive features to keep up with other newer ships. After all, by the time the new Disney ships come on line, Magic and Wonder will be middle aged by cruise line standards, and will be in need of major updates.

[Kenny]

This is interesting!! Thanks for the info!!

Kenny

[Hartster]

>>Since Disney could easily fill bigger ships in their established Carribean/Bahamas market, it seems more likely they would put one of the older ships on the West coast, where it could easily compete with most of the other cruise lines' offerings there.


There's one problem with big ships. Their size limits the ports they can dock at (and this also affects transiting the Panama Canal.) Which means 1) be prepared to board more tenders at certain, existing ports or 2) look for ports to be added, ones that accomodate the new ships. Best place to take a guess _if_ Disney were to expand where their ships go is to look at other cruise lines' scheduled for ships with similar tonnage.

[dmpyron]

Right now, RCI is sending one of their Voyager class ships Around the Horn for Mexican Riviera cruises. Given that that's the only route for these ships, I doubt that DCL would send one of the new ships to California. But I wouldn't be surprised to see the Magic go there for summer in Alaska and winter in Mexico.

But that's all speculation. If I could see that far into the future, I'd be buy lottery tickets. Heck, if I could see until Wednesday night ...

[Dave Marx]

Ah, but the new ships will be coming into service just around the time the Panama Canal expansion is finished. So, "around the Horn" won't be a major factor for DCL's decision.

As to which ships are deployed where, it depends a whole lot on things we don't know. For example, how many ships does DCL plan to have in each market? Will the Magic and Wonder be going into extended drydock (perhaps to be stretched) after one or both of the new ships are in service? How much demand has DCL determined exists in the West Coast market?

Will the first new ship arrive in early '11, or later in the year (Magic and Wonder had late-summer deliveries)? If early '11, I could see the new ship replacing the Magic or Wonder in the Caribbean and one of the older ships being repoed through the canal for a year or so. Once the canal expansion is done, I could see one of the new ships moving through the canal to replace an older ship headed to drydock. But timing changes those possibilities. If the ships arrive later in the year, the second one could be destined to head directly to California through Panama. That'd be newsworthy on several counts.

There's something to be said for cruise lines matching similar-sized ships in a given market, but there's also something to be said for over-matching. A big, spanking-new ship dispatched directly to California would make a mighty big splash in that market.

Then there's the question of where to put four ships. I think most of us doubt Disney would run two ships year-round out of California. Again, even allowing for the possibility of the Magic and Wonder needing a back-up during an extended drydock (a temporary circumstance, if it happens at all), just what will Disney do with the additional ship? Three ships in the Caribbean? One on semi-permanent "special itinerary" duty? Home porting in a yet-to-be-announced third market?

Now, if the new ships are both place in the Caribbean and the older ships are moved to other markets, that means DCL has to sell roughly 50% additional staterooms in the Caribbean market to keep those ships filled. If only one is home-ported in the Caribbean (alongside the Magic or Wonder), then they have to sell just 25% additional staterooms in that market. I can see benefits to either plan.

There are, of course, even more possibilities. Considering how little time we spend mulling these over, just imagine what DCL and Parks and Resorts management must have gone through over the years - the analyses, the studies, the meetings. I have a feeling that, whatever DCL does, it'll contain some surprises for us all.

[mouseclub4]

I am just wondering if there is any new news on the ships. We just sat down and said we are going to book in 2010 maybe end of 09 for our 10 year Annv. but we are thinking we will sail in 2011 for the chance at the new ship. Has anyone heard anything new or if your sailing maybe go to one of the Capt. Talks and ask??? who knows maybe you will find something out.

[Dave Marx]

While we might learn some of the current ideas floating around about the new ships in such a manner, news that has a real impact for your plans (will the first new ship really arrive in '11, and when?) has not been released. While someone has perhaps posted the shipyard's construction schedule online, I have yet to find it. The shipyard has a schedule to keep, in order to maximize production, so I'm sure they'll do their best to keep the design process on track. Delays on earlier projects at the shipyard would likely effect DCL more than design issues, and there are many ships in the pipeline between now and then that might have an impact on the shipyard schedule.

When I have the time I may look more deeply into the shipyard's production/output - an interesting factor is that it has two large, indoor drydocks (a nice capability considering their location near the North Sea). How much time does it take to build a ship there, from keel laying to launch? We can probably get a hint from reports on the recent construction of ships for AIDA and NCL.