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Old 06-04-2018, 11:37 AM   #1
Teacher
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Hi
I'm not sure if this is where I should post. First time in a long while.
We are DVC members and our home resort is Kidani. My husband and I will be celebrating our 50th wedding anniversary this November. We are currently holding a 8 night stay at Kidani Dec 8-16. We are taking the entire family and would prefer nearer the MK. I waitlisted a 2BR at VGF. Being honest and brutally truthful, how successful do you think I will be? Should I waitlist Bay Lake as well and what view would be more likely to become available? Thanks for your help!
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Old 06-04-2018, 12:26 PM   #2
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I'm moving this to the DVC forum. Good luck!
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Old 06-04-2018, 12:35 PM   #3
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It's difficult to give you an educated response because there are just so many variables. I'd say less than 50/50 odds, but can't get any more precise than that.

In order for the waitlist match to occur, ALL of your desired days must simultaneously come available. If someone cancels 7 of the 8 nights, it will not match your waitlist and the available nights will either get passed to the next person on the waitlist or released for booking by any member.

You could be 1st on the waitlist for some nights and 10th for other nights--or anywhere in between.

Also early December is a very popular time among members. Demand may have dipped a bit by the 15th/16th, but earlier in the month (when point costs are low), demand is very high.

If you want to try Bay lake as well, the "Lake View" has the most rooms thus greatest odds.

Good luck.
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Old 06-04-2018, 01:02 PM   #4
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I'm with Tim. I'm not going to put your odds any higher than 50/50 and I wouldn't have thought that much for the Grand Floridian. I know a lot of people who've waitlisted there and never lucked out.

I know it might hurt on the points, but how about a waterfront bungalow at the Poly? The chances are you might find one available if you can afford it? If not, how about a cabin at the Wilderness Lodge? We've stayed in the waterfront bungalows and they are amazing and we toured the cabins in January and loved those as well. Both would be an amazing way to celebrate a special occasion.
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Old 06-04-2018, 01:15 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by chezp View Post
I'm with Tim. I'm not going to put your odds any higher than 50/50 and I wouldn't have thought that much for the Grand Floridian. I know a lot of people who've waitlisted there and never lucked out.
Yeah. Only reason I wouldn't rule it out entirely is the 2B rooms at GF are pretty expensive. Someone may have a change of heart and switch to cheaper (assuming available), have family members drop out of the trip, etc.

Hate to say that there is zero chance but I would not get hopes up.

If OP is open to a split stay (part of trip at 2 resorts), that's a possibility. For instance, keep checking DVC website periodically and see if (for example) nights of Dec 13-15 come available. If so, book those and then start watching for the 12th...11th, etc. Getting 1-3 nights at a time is certainly much easier than 8 straight.

But any split stay involves the hassle of packing your stuff up mid-trip and switching resorts. And I would NOT recommend taking nights in the middle of the trip or you may end up switching rooms twice. You don't want to end up with 2 nights at Kidani, 3 nights at BLT then 3 nights at Kidani.
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Old 06-04-2018, 02:41 PM   #6
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You have all been so helpful! I guess I was just hoping and needed some pixie dust. Is this time period going to be super busy? I have always gone late August and never had trouble at VGF at the 7 month date. But now that we are older (haha) the heat is a little much. There is absolutely nothing available that time period. I'm getting a little worried.
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Old 06-04-2018, 03:06 PM   #7
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Is this time period going to be super busy?
Christmas and Easter busy? No. But popularity among DVC owners is unquestionable, which leads to resorts being filled quickly. Many people come that time of year for the moderate weather, holiday decor and other festivities. It wouldn't surprise me if it was busier than late August when temperatures are hot and many kids have already returned to school.
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Old 06-04-2018, 04:27 PM   #8
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Actually, I suspect you’d have better luck getting a 2br or waitlisting one in VGF in November prior to Thanksgiving week. No idea how much better, but since it’s not as crazy popular a time as early December, a better chance.

As Tim indicated, you’ve a better chance getting a 2br than any other size.

We were told by a CM when we checked in at VGF last October that it runs 97% full year-round because it’s so small and close to the MK.

As a result, you may have a greater chance of getting into BLT.
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